What shipped
Assumption Ledger is a self-contained browser tool for naming the bets under a decision. Title the plan, add assumptions as cards with confidence and impact-if-wrong ratings (optional owner), and watch a fragility score plus risk-sorted list float the high-impact / low-confidence items to the top in a danger highlight. Presets cover a pricing change, an AI ops pilot, and hiring a contractor. A copy-summary button dumps a plain-text ledger for Slack or a doc. Optional localStorage persistence; no accounts, no network beyond fonts.
How to try
- Open the live demo (iframe on the right, or full-page link below).
- Load a preset (start with AI pilot for ops) or title your own decision.
- Add or edit assumptions; notice high-risk cards rise and the fragility ring update.
- Hit Copy summary for a ranked plain-text dump you can paste into Slack.
Scope trim
No collaboration, no SSO, no probability math beyond a simple impact × inverse-confidence heuristic (1–9), and no export formats beyond clipboard text. Persistence is local to the browser only.
Limitations
- Fragility is illustrative — it ranks relative brittleness, not calibrated probability of failure.
- Three-level confidence/impact scales are coarse; edge cases sit in the middle band.
- Clipboard copy needs permission; otherwise select the summary manually.
- Not a risk register or compliance tool — use it to start the conversation, then document elsewhere.
Suggested next steps
- Shareable URL hash encoding the decision + assumptions for async review.
- Optional “validate by” date and status (open / validated / invalidated).
- Export a tiny Markdown or PNG card for Slack.